Market Note · Tariffs
Trump's 2026 tariffs: the new rates, and what analysts say they cost.
The verified data points
- A new global duty scheme took effect at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24, 2026, setting 10 percent on some partners and 12.5 percent on others across about 60 trading partners. Goods in transit were exempt until July 28. Sources: Reuters, Politico, Dorsey.
- Exemptions include oil and gas, fertilizer, certain foodstuffs, and products already under Section 232 tariffs such as autos, steel, aluminum, and copper. Source: Reuters.
- A separate measure adds 50 percent tariffs on select Canadian goods such as wine, alcohol, and cement, effective August 19, 2026, with energy and critical minerals exempt. A 25 percent duty on Brazil took effect July 22, 2026. Source: JD Supra tariff tracker.
- The Yale Budget Lab (July 19, 2026) put the average effective US tariff rate at 19.4 percent, the highest since 1933, estimating a 1.7 percent short run rise in the price level, about 2,300 dollars per household, a 0.9 percent cut to 2026 real GDP growth, and a 0.6 point rise in unemployment. Source: Yale Budget Lab.
What happened
When the prior blanket 10 percent global tariff expired, it was replaced by a tiered structure. Most listed partners face 10 percent, while Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and a group that includes China, Brazil, and others face 12.5 percent, several of them on top of existing most favored nation rates. The European Union and Taiwan sit at 10 percent net of those base rates. On top of the global scheme, targeted country measures on Canada and Brazil raise the stakes further.
The design matters. Energy, fertilizer, and some food are carved out, which softens the most direct hit to household staples and to the oil complex. But the breadth of the scheme, roughly 60 partners, is why analysts describe the average effective rate as the highest in about 90 years.
What analysts say it costs
The clearest dated estimate comes from the Yale Budget Lab. It calculates that the tariff regime lifts the average effective rate to 19.4 percent and raises the US price level by about 1.7 percent in the short run. Translated to a household, that is roughly 2,300 dollars in 2025 dollars. Yale also estimates a drag of about 0.9 percent on real GDP growth for 2026 and a rise in unemployment. Read plainly, tariffs act like a broad tax that shows up as higher prices and slower growth.
Why real estate investors should care
- Tariffs are inflationary at the margin. Higher import costs push up the price level, which makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. That reinforces the higher for longer financing backdrop that already weighs on real estate.
- Construction costs can rise. Duties on steel, aluminum, and building inputs feed into development budgets. Higher replacement cost can support the value of existing, already built assets, since new supply becomes more expensive to deliver.
- Real assets are a classic inflation consideration. Income producing real estate with the ability to adjust rents is one of the reasons investors look to the sector when the price level is rising. That is a consideration, not a promise, and it depends entirely on the specific asset and lease structure.
Sources
- Reuters, new duties as 10 percent US tariffs expire, July 24, 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-imposes-forced-labor-duties-60-trading-partners-as-10-us-tariffs-expire-2026-07-24/
- Politico, new tariffs on dozens of countries, July 23, 2026: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/23/trump-new-tariffs-dozens-of-countries-01010228
- JD Supra, Trump tariff tracker, July 2026: https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/trump-tariff-tracker-july-21-2026-6855655/
- Yale Budget Lab, tracking the economic effects of tariffs: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/tracking-economic-effects-tariffs