Chandler, Arizona

Section 01Executive Summary

Chandler is an affluent, technology anchored suburb in the southeast quadrant of the Phoenix metropolitan area, and its real estate profile in 2026 reflects that identity: high incomes, expensive housing, a deep semiconductor employment base, and the same metro wide apartment oversupply that is pressuring rents across the Sun Belt. The city is home to roughly 278,748 residents as of July 1, 2025 according to the US Census Bureau, and it sits atop one of the densest technology employment nodes in the western United States, the Price Road corridor, where more than 40,000 workers are concentrated at Intel, Microchip Technology, NXP Semiconductors, PayPal, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Northrop Grumman.

The investment picture divides cleanly by asset class. On the residential ownership side, Chandler's for sale market remained active: Redfin reported a Chandler median sale price of $568,900 in June 2026, with roughly 1,227 homes sold that month, up from about 1,110 a year earlier, even as typical marketing time lengthened to about 78 days from about 55 days a year earlier. On the apartment side, the story is metro wide softness driven by a historic construction wave. CoStar data reported through Matthews placed Phoenix multifamily vacancy at 12.4% in the third quarter of 2025, with average asking rents of $1,600 per unit falling 2.8% year over year, extending a two year stretch of negative rent growth. Commercial fundamentals are mixed, with tight retail near 4.8% vacancy, elevated office vacancy near 17%, and a large industrial pipeline in the southeast submarket.

The core educational takeaway for an accredited investor is that Chandler pairs an unusually strong and diversified high wage demand base with a cyclical apartment oversupply that is now moderating. The city's fundamentals, including a median household income above $108,000 and a semiconductor cluster backed by tens of billions of dollars of committed capital, are among the most durable in the region. What follows details each figure with its named source and scope.

Section 02Population and Migration

Chandler is a mature, largely built out suburb whose rapid growth years are behind it, a fact the population data makes plain. The US Census Bureau estimated the city at 278,748 residents as of July 1, 2025, up just 1.0% from the April 2020 census base of 275,987. That contrasts sharply with the prior decade, when the city grew from 236,123 in 2010 to nearly 276,000 in 2020. The measures below describe a densely settled, essentially built out city where further growth increasingly comes from redevelopment and infill rather than raw greenfield expansion.

The slow headline growth understates the market's demand quality. Chandler is highly educated and demographically diverse, as the following measures from the 2020 to 2024 American Community Survey show.

At the metropolitan scale, CoStar data reported through Matthews placed the Phoenix area population at 5,262,290 with 2,000,676 households, and Maricopa County remains among the fastest growing large counties in the nation, supplying a steady stream of renters and buyers to premium suburbs like Chandler.

Migration into Chandler is dominated by higher cost West Coast metros. Redfin's search based migration sample for the first quarter of 2026 showed net inflows led by Seattle, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and Portland, while net outflows were overwhelmingly intrastate to lower cost Arizona markets such as Tucson and Prescott Valley. Redfin does not publish reliable net inflow counts for each origin metro at the individual city level, so those origins are described here in relative order rather than as precise numeric flows. The conclusion for an investor is that Chandler captures affluent, relocation driven demand from expensive coastal markets, a pattern that supports the top of the local housing market even as raw population growth slows.

Section 03Jobs and Economic Anchors

Chandler's economy is defined by semiconductors and technology, and it functions as the employment core of the East Valley. The single most important asset is the Price Road corridor, a roughly 15 square mile cluster that the City of Chandler reports has surpassed 40,000 jobs, with seven individual company locations each employing more than 1,000 workers. The anchor is Intel's Ocotillo campus, which spans more than 700 acres, houses six semiconductor fabrication facilities, and employed roughly 12,000 Arizona workers at peak, backed by a $20 billion expansion for its two newest fabs that ranks as the largest single private investment in Arizona history. Microchip Technology is headquartered in Chandler, NXP Semiconductors employs about 1,700 in the city, and PayPal, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Northrop Grumman all operate major technology and back office operations along the corridor.

At the metropolitan level, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm employment for the Phoenix area at 2,439,400 for July 2026 on a preliminary basis, growing 1.2% year over year, with a civilian labor force of roughly 2,666,900 and an unemployment rate of 4.9% for June 2026, not seasonally adjusted, data extracted August 28, 2026. The metro sector breakdown shows a diversified base led by trade and logistics, health care, and professional services.

The table shows a metro economy where no single sector dominates, a healthy sign, though the figures that matter most for Chandler specifically sit inside manufacturing and professional services, where the semiconductor cluster lives. A cautionary note belongs here: Intel undertook a corporate restructuring in 2024 and 2025, and Chandler area filings under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act documented 385 layoffs in October 2024 and 172 additional positions in July 2025. The offsetting dynamic is the enormous TSMC investment in north Phoenix, which the company raised to a planned $165 billion total across fabrication, advanced packaging, and research facilities in March 2025, and which has absorbed displaced semiconductor talent and extended supply chain demand into Chandler's industrial base. The net read is a high wage, capital intensive employment engine that is consolidating rather than contracting, with metro construction employment near 183,700 reflecting the ongoing build out.

Section 04Income

Income is Chandler's single strongest fundamental and the clearest justification for its housing costs. The Census Bureau reported a median household income of $108,095 in 2024 dollars for the 2020 to 2024 period, well above the Phoenix metropolitan median of $90,033 reported by CoStar and far above national norms, alongside per capita income of $53,946 and a low poverty rate of 7.9%.

The gap of roughly $18,000 between Chandler's median household income and the metro median is the quantitative signature of the Price Road corridor's concentration of engineering and technology salaries. For real estate, high and stable incomes support both a deep move up ownership market and a renter base that can absorb premium apartment rents, which is precisely why the softness in the apartment market is a supply story rather than a demand or affordability collapse. The Census also reported a median gross rent of $1,902 and median monthly owner costs with a mortgage of $2,044 for the 2020 to 2024 period, figures that sit comfortably below what a six figure median income can service and that leave room for the market to work through its current supply overhang.

Section 05Housing and Multifamily

On that basis, the metro apartment market is in a clear supply driven correction. CoStar data reported through Matthews placed Phoenix multifamily vacancy at 12.4% in the third quarter of 2025, elevated by a construction wave that ranks Phoenix among the six most aggressively built apartment markets in the nation.

The essential point is that demand is genuinely strong and supply is simply stronger for now. Trailing year absorption of 17,000 units was described as more than double the prepandemic average, yet it was overwhelmed by deliveries, holding vacancy above 12%. Because Chandler is a supply constrained, high income submarket with limited developable land, it tends to carry lower vacancy and higher rents than the West Valley and downtown Phoenix nodes where most new luxury and build to rent supply is concentrated, which means the metro figures likely overstate the softness a Chandler focused owner would experience.

Section 06Rents

Metro apartment rents have been falling for two years, a direct consequence of the supply surge, but the decline is measured rather than severe and appears to be nearing a floor. Average asking rents stood at $1,600 per unit in the third quarter of 2025, down 2.8% year over year per CoStar, and Phoenix was among the weakest major markets nationally, with CoStar noting Phoenix rents down 2.6% year over year in its second quarter 2025 release, trailing only Austin and Denver among large markets for rent declines. Rent levels vary meaningfully by unit type across the metro.

The progression from $1,373 for a one bedroom to $2,107 for a three bedroom underscores that family sized units command a substantial premium, a relevant point in a market like Chandler where high incomes and good schools support demand for larger apartments and single family rentals. The Census reported a Chandler median gross rent of $1,902 for the 2020 to 2024 period, above the metro one and two bedroom averages, consistent with Chandler's status as a higher rent submarket. For an investor, the takeaway is that the rent correction is a metro cyclical event driven by luxury oversupply, and that Chandler's rent levels sit at the upper end of the metro distribution, which historically recovers first as the supply pipeline thins.

Section 07Vacancy

Vacancy is the metric that best captures the current cyclical position, and the direction of travel is what matters. Metro apartment vacancy of 12.4% in the third quarter of 2025 was elevated by construction that equaled roughly 5% of existing inventory, but the pipeline had already declined about 40% from its mid 2023 peak, setting up a tightening once deliveries slow. Independent brokerage estimates for the following quarters pointed toward gradual improvement, with Kidder Mathews describing Phoenix multifamily fundamentals improving into 2026 as demand absorbed new supply and construction slowed.

The historical context reinforces that today's vacancy is cyclical rather than structural. Before the current supply wave, Phoenix apartment vacancy ran well below current levels, and the metro has repeatedly absorbed large supply pulses given its population and job growth. The most reasonable interpretation of the data is that metro vacancy is at or near a cyclical peak in the low to middle teens and is set to decline as the construction pipeline empties.

Section 08Supply Pipeline

Supply is the proximate cause of the metro's soft apartment fundamentals, and its trajectory is the key forward signal. CoStar data reported through Matthews showed 22,100 units under construction across the metro in the third quarter of 2025, roughly 5% of existing inventory, with 6,500 units delivered in that single quarter. Critically, the pipeline had contracted about 40% from its mid 2023 peak, and construction starts had fallen sharply, which telegraphs materially slower deliveries in 2026 and 2027.

The data describes a market past the peak of its supply cycle. New development across the metro has been concentrated in Downtown Phoenix and the West Valley, where luxury high rise and build to rent product dominates, rather than in built out southeast suburbs like Chandler where developable sites are scarce. That geographic concentration of supply is favorable for Chandler owners, because the wave of new competition is landing elsewhere while Chandler's own inventory grows slowly. The combination of a shrinking pipeline and continued strong absorption is the classic setup for vacancy compression and a return to positive rent growth, a process the brokerage community expected to begin unfolding through 2026.

Section 09Single Family Homes

Chandler's for sale housing market remained active through mid 2026, a notable divergence from the soft apartment sector and a reflection of the city's high incomes and desirable schools. Redfin reported a Chandler median sale price of $568,900 in June 2026, with roughly 1,227 homes sold that month, up from about 1,110 a year earlier, even as typical marketing time lengthened to about 78 days from about 55 days a year earlier.

The Census Bureau reported a median value of owner occupied homes in Chandler of $507,800 for the 2020 to 2024 period and an owner occupancy rate of 65.0%, which frames the single family rental opportunity. With 35% of housing renter occupied, a median gross rent of $1,902, and home prices near or above $568,900 that place ownership out of reach for many workers, Chandler supports a meaningful single family rental market anchored by high credit tenants tied to the technology cluster. Local brokerage analysis noted that certain master planned Chandler neighborhoods appreciated even as the broader metro was flat, attributing the outperformance to the Price Road corridor's employment concentration, which reinforces the thesis that Chandler's for sale and rental housing is supported by a resilient high wage demand base rather than by speculative momentum.

Section 10Commercial Real Estate and Retail Centers

Chandler's commercial real estate is best understood through the metro and East Valley lens, and it splits into three very different stories. Industrial is the largest and most Chandler relevant sector, because the Price Road corridor and the surrounding southeast submarket house semiconductor fabrication, advanced manufacturing, and the logistics that serve them. Office is oversupplied metro wide but tighter in Chandler's technology corridor. Retail is genuinely tight and among the best performing in the nation.

The industrial figures require context. Greater Phoenix industrial vacancy stood at 9.7% at the end of 2025 per Colliers, but the Southeast submarket that includes Chandler carried a higher total vacancy of 14.6% on a very large base of 129,356,842 square feet, with 3,468,641 square feet under construction and average asking rents of $1.28 per square foot on a triple net basis per CoStar data reported through Kidder Mathews for the second quarter of 2026. That elevated submarket vacancy reflects a wave of large speculative logistics and manufacturing space delivering into the East Valley, and it is a genuine near term risk for industrial owners even as the semiconductor build out drives long term demand. Office tells a national story of oversupply, with Phoenix metro vacancy near 16.9% in July 2026, though Chandler's Price Road technology office, occupied by Intel, PayPal, Wells Fargo, and others, is materially tighter than the metro average because it is largely owner occupied or single tenant technology space rather than speculative multitenant product. Retail is the standout, with Phoenix metro vacancy at just 4.8% in the second quarter of 2026 and among the top markets nationally for rent growth, supporting grocery anchored and necessity centers that serve Chandler's affluent, growing household base.

Section 11Transactions and Capital Markets

Investment activity in the metro apartment market re entered a moderate recovery in late 2025, and pricing held up better than the soft rent numbers might suggest, a sign of investor conviction in long term fundamentals. CoStar data reported through Matthews showed $1.4 billion of Phoenix multifamily sales in the third quarter of 2025, with average pricing of $269,000 per unit and cap rates holding near 4.8%.

The most striking datapoint is the combination of falling rents and firm pricing. Cap rates near 4.8% and prices near $269,000 per unit, with premier Class A assets in sought after submarkets trading at or below that cap rate, indicate that investors are underwriting the current rent softness as temporary and are paying for the metro's long run population and job growth. Deals were concentrated in newly delivered assets, suggesting buyers are acquiring modern product at a discount to replacement cost during the supply trough. For a Chandler focused investor, the implication is that entry pricing on quality assets reflects near term caution while the underlying demand thesis, anchored by a semiconductor investment cycle exceeding one hundred billion dollars across the region, remains intact. Transaction volume, while improved, still sat below prepandemic norms, which can favor disciplined buyers with capital ready to deploy.

Section 12Taxes

Arizona is a comparatively low property tax state, and Chandler is no exception, which is a meaningful advantage for real estate returns. The mechanics require care: Arizona assesses residential property at 10% of its limited property value, and tax rates are then applied to that assessed value, so nominal rates per $100 of assessed value look high relative to the effective burden on market value. The City of Chandler reported a primary property tax rate for fiscal year 2025 to 2026 of $0.2118 per $100 of assessed valuation, reduced from $0.2126 the prior year, a rare example of a rate cut. City, county, school, and special district levies combine into the total bill.

The bottom line is a low effective property tax burden. Chandler's effective rate on market value is estimated near 0.47%, close to the Maricopa County median near 0.40% and below the roughly 1.02% national median, and Maricopa County's median annual property tax bill of $1,916 on a median home value near $482,800 quantifies how light the burden is in dollar terms. For an income property investor, low and stable property taxes translate directly into stronger net operating income and are one of the structural reasons Sun Belt markets like Chandler screen favorably against high tax coastal alternatives. The recent primary rate reduction, though small, signals a fiscally conservative posture at the city level.

Section 13Insurance

Property insurance in Chandler is comparatively benign relative to catastrophe exposed coastal and wildfire prone markets, which supports operating margins. Arizona is not subject to hurricane, coastal flood, or significant earthquake risk, and Chandler in particular carries a minor flood risk profile, with First Street data reported through Redfin classifying the city's flood factor as minor. The principal physical hazards, extreme heat and occasional severe wind and dust events, do not carry the same insurance cost consequences as hurricane or wildfire exposure, and Arizona homeowner and commercial property premiums have historically run below the levels seen in Florida, Texas coastal counties, or California wildfire zones.

The prudent expectation for an investor is that insurance remains a moderate and relatively predictable cost line in Chandler underwriting, without the sharp escalation and availability problems that have reshaped economics in catastrophe exposed markets. The one forward consideration worth monitoring is that national reinsurance cost pressures have pushed premiums higher across most markets in recent years, so even a low risk market like Chandler is not immune to broad premium inflation, and current quotes should be verified rather than assumed from historical norms.

Section 14Landlord Tenant and Regulatory Environment

Arizona is a landlord favorable state, and its regulatory framework is one of the reasons the metro attracts substantial institutional and private rental capital. The state operates under the Arizona Residential Landlord and Tenant Act, which provides a clear and relatively efficient process for lease enforcement and eviction, with a special detainer action that resolves comparatively quickly by national standards. Arizona has no statewide rent control, and state law preempts local rent regulation, so neither Chandler nor any Arizona municipality can cap rents, a structural protection for rental income that does not exist in states such as California, Oregon, or New York.

The regulatory friction in Chandler, as in most desirable suburbs, is on the land use and development side rather than the tenant side. Chandler is largely built out, and new large scale apartment development faces scarce land and municipal entitlement processes, which constrains supply and protects existing owners from the oversupply landing in less mature parts of the metro. Short term rental regulation is a further consideration, as Arizona has generally limited the ability of cities to ban short term rentals outright while allowing reasonable health, safety, and licensing rules, so investors pursuing that strategy should verify current Chandler licensing requirements. The overall regulatory read is strongly favorable on the operating side, with no rent control and efficient enforcement, and moderately restrictive on the entitlement side, a combination that supports the value of existing rental assets. Investors should confirm current city ordinances before underwriting any specific strategy.

Section 15Infrastructure

Chandler benefits from strong transportation and utility infrastructure that underpins its technology economy. The city is served by the Loop 101 Price Freeway and the Loop 202 Santan Freeway, which connect the Price Road corridor to the broader metro highway network and to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and the Phoenix Mesa Gateway Airport, both within convenient reach. This connectivity is a core reason the semiconductor cluster located and expanded in Chandler, because fabrication and advanced manufacturing depend on reliable movement of materials, equipment, and a large commuting workforce.

The defining infrastructure question for Chandler and all of metropolitan Phoenix is water. The region depends on a combination of Colorado River water delivered through the Central Arizona Project, in state river supplies, and groundwater, and Arizona operates one of the more sophisticated water management frameworks in the country, including groundwater regulation and assured water supply requirements for new development. Semiconductor fabrication is water intensive, and the major manufacturers have invested heavily in water reclamation and recycling to operate sustainably in a desert environment. For a real estate investor, the practical infrastructure conclusion is that Chandler is well served by highways, airports, and power, and that water supply, while actively managed and adequate for existing development, is the long term variable that most warrants monitoring, particularly given ongoing Colorado River allocation pressures across the Southwest.

Section 16Climate and Physical Risks

Chandler's physical risk profile is dominated by heat rather than by the flood, wind, or fire perils that drive losses elsewhere. First Street data reported through Redfin classifies Chandler's heat factor as extreme, its flood factor as minor, its wildfire factor as moderate, and its wind factor as minimal. The extreme heat designation reflects the reality of a low desert location where summer temperatures routinely exceed 109 degrees Fahrenheit and are projected to intensify, which raises cooling costs, stresses building systems, and is a genuine quality of life and operating cost consideration.

The favorable side of that profile is the near absence of catastrophic property perils. Unlike coastal markets exposed to hurricanes and storm surge, or California and mountain markets exposed to wildfire, Chandler faces minimal flood and wind risk, which keeps insurance costs moderate and avoids the tail risk of a single catastrophic event destroying an asset. The primary climate linked risks for an investor are chronic rather than acute: rising cooling costs from intensifying heat, and the regional water supply question discussed under infrastructure. These are manageable, budgetable risks rather than existential ones, which is part of why the desert Southwest has continued to attract population and capital despite its heat. The sensible underwriting posture is to model rising utility and cooling costs and to treat water policy as a long term regional variable, while recognizing that Chandler's acute catastrophe exposure is among the lowest of any major growth market in the country.

Section 17Neighborhoods and Submarkets

Chandler's residential geography is commonly understood in price tiers that track proximity to the Price Road corridor and the quality of master planned communities. Local brokerage analysis frames the market in bands from entry level product in the older northern zip codes to premium south Chandler communities near the Ocotillo campus.

The tiering illustrates that Chandler is uniformly expensive by national standards, with even entry level product starting near $450,000, and that the premium is tied to the technology employment map. South Chandler, including the Ocotillo and Fulton Ranch areas near Intel, commands the highest prices, and local analysis reported certain south Chandler communities appreciating by double digit percentages year over year even as the broader metro was flat, a direct measure of the corridor's pricing power. That double digit figure is a brokerage observation rather than an independently verified statistic and should be treated as directional. North Chandler zip codes offer relatively more accessible entry points and older housing stock that can suit value add single family rental strategies. For apartment investors, the most valuable submarket characteristic is Chandler's scarcity of developable land for new large scale multifamily, which insulates existing assets from the new supply concentrated in the West Valley and downtown Phoenix. The practical conclusion is that submarket selection within Chandler is primarily a function of proximity to the Price Road employment core, which anchors both ownership demand and rental fundamentals.

Section 18Opportunities

The clearest opportunity is acquiring quality apartments during the metro supply trough at pricing that reflects near term rent softness rather than long term fundamentals. With metro vacancy in the low teens, rents down 2.8% year over year, and cap rates near 4.8% on modern assets often trading below replacement cost, patient capital can enter a market whose demand drivers, including a median Chandler household income above $108,000 and a semiconductor cluster backed by tens of billions of dollars of committed investment, are exceptionally durable. Because new supply is concentrated outside Chandler in the West Valley and downtown, a Chandler focused apartment strategy captures the demand recovery while avoiding the worst of the competitive supply.

A second opportunity is single family rental. With home prices near or above $568,900, a 65% ownership rate, and a high credit technology workforce, Chandler supports single family rentals aimed at relocating engineers and dual income households who want good schools but are not ready to buy. A third opportunity is necessity and grocery anchored retail, where metro vacancy near 4.8% and top tier rent growth reflect a supply disciplined, high income consumer base. Finally, the long term semiconductor investment cycle, including Intel's Ocotillo expansion and the broader TSMC supply chain ripple into Chandler's industrial corridor, provides a multi year demand tailwind for industrial, office, and housing that few suburban markets can match.

Section 19Risks

The dominant near term risk is metro apartment oversupply. A construction wave equal to roughly 5% of inventory has pushed vacancy above 12% and driven rents down for two years, and while the pipeline is shrinking, absorption must continue outpacing deliveries for the market to tighten, and a demand shock could prolong the softness. The second risk is concentration in semiconductors. Chandler's prosperity is unusually tied to a single industry, and Intel's restructuring, documented in Chandler layoff filings of 385 positions in October 2024 and 172 in July 2025, is a reminder that even anchor employers contract; the offsetting TSMC ramp has so far retained displaced talent in the metro, but a broader semiconductor downturn would hit Chandler harder than a more diversified suburb.

The third risk is the Southeast Valley industrial pipeline, where submarket vacancy near 14.6% on a very large base signals that speculative logistics and manufacturing supply could pressure industrial rents and lease up timelines in the near term. Additional risks include the region's long term water supply, subject to Colorado River allocation pressures, and intensifying extreme heat that raises operating costs, though both are chronic and manageable rather than acute. Broad risks such as elevated financing costs and national insurance premium inflation apply here as everywhere. None of these is a verdict on the market; each is a variable an investor should size independently against Chandler's strong income and employment base.

Section 20Investor Implications

For an accredited investor, Chandler offers a rare combination of Sun Belt growth exposure and defensive, high income stability, temporarily available at a discount created by a metro wide apartment supply cycle. The demand fundamentals are among the strongest in any suburban market in the country: a median household income above $108,000, a 47.7% bachelor's degree attainment rate, and a semiconductor and technology cluster on the Price Road corridor backed by tens of billions of dollars of committed capital. The current softness in metro apartment rents and vacancy is a supply event that is already moderating, not a demand failure, which is precisely the condition that rewards disciplined countercyclical capital.

The strategies the data most supports are countercyclical acquisition of modern Chandler area apartments at pricing near or below replacement cost, single family rental holds serving the technology workforce, and necessity and grocery anchored retail in a metro where retail vacancy sits below 5%. Underwriting should focus on three variables: the pace at which the metro apartment pipeline empties and vacancy compresses, which drives rent recovery; the health and diversification of the semiconductor cluster given Intel's restructuring and the TSMC ramp; and operating cost inflation from cooling and insurance. Industrial investors should weigh the near term Southeast Valley supply overhang against the long term semiconductor demand tailwind. Chandler rewards investors who treat the present apartment softness as a timing opportunity within a structurally strong, high income market rather than as a signal of underlying weakness.

Section 21Conclusion

Chandler is a high income, technology anchored suburb whose real estate is fundamentally strong and cyclically mispriced in one segment. The ownership market remained active, with a Chandler median sale price of $568,900 in June 2026 and rising sales volume even as marketing times lengthened, while the metro apartment market worked through a historic supply wave that pushed vacancy to 12.4% and rents down 2.8%. Beneath both sits one of the most durable demand engines in the region: more than 40,000 technology jobs on the Price Road corridor, a median household income above $108,000, low property taxes, minimal catastrophe risk, and a landlord favorable legal framework. The two variables that will most shape outcomes are the speed of the apartment supply recovery and the trajectory of the semiconductor cluster, with the TSMC investment cycle providing a multi year tailwind that offsets Intel's restructuring. For the accredited investor, Chandler is best understood not as a simple yes or no but as a market where entry timing during the current supply trough, submarket selection near the employment core, and honest modeling of water and heat costs will separate strong results from ordinary ones. Every figure in this review carries a named public source and an explicit scope so that the reader can verify it independently.

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