Memphis, Tennessee

Section 01Executive Summary

Memphis is a large Mississippi River port city whose public market tape is the opposite of a 2021 boomtown. The city proper is shrinking. The 2020 Census counted 633,104 residents. The American Community Survey 2024 one year estimate is 610,936, with a margin of error of 64 people. The 2024 Census estimate is 610,919. Shelby County, of which Memphis is the seat, fell from 929,744 in the 2020 Census to a 2025 estimate of 910,226. Household demand inside the city limits is not being lifted by population. It is being reshaped by a renter majority, a low owner occupied stock median, and a logistics payroll that is large even when total jobs barely grow.

Three geographies must stay separate. The city is the unit for income, tenure, rents, vacancy, and housing stock. Shelby County is the unit for building permits and county product. The Memphis Tennessee Mississippi Arkansas metropolitan statistical area is the unit the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses for payroll jobs. DeSoto County, Mississippi, and the eastern Shelby suburbs are not the same market as Frayser or South Memphis.

In the metro area, preliminary June 2026 nonfarm payroll employment was 647,900, up 0.2% from a year earlier. The not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.8%. Trade, transportation, and utilities employed 189,600 people, 29.26% of all nonfarm jobs. Education and health services is the second supersector at 101,100 jobs. Most other private supersectors were flat or down over 12 months.

Housing is low priced on the public ACS prints, old, renter heavy, and loosely occupied on the rental side. ACS 2024 counts 291,759 housing units, 250,830 occupied households, a median owner occupied value of $209,800, and a median gross rent of $1,263. Renters occupy 139,093 units, 55.45% of occupied housing. Units vacant and for rent number 15,751. The Census rental vacancy rate is 10.17%. Another 23,011 units are other vacant. HUD’s FY 2026 two bedroom Fair Market Rent for the Memphis HUD Metro FMR Area is $1,274, down from $1,355 in FY 2025.

No public Memphis commercial vacancy rate or cap rate is published. The frame is a low price, high vacancy, logistics anchored, shrinking city. It is not a verdict. Past conditions and trends do not assure future occupancy, rents, or investment results.

Section 02Population and Migration

The 2020 Census city count of 633,104 is the last full enumeration. ACS 2024 estimates 610,936 residents. That is 22,168 fewer people than the 2020 count, a 3.50% decline over four years. The 2024 Census estimate is 610,919. The city is losing people.

Shelby County shows the same pattern at a slightly larger scale. The 2020 Census county count is 929,744. The 2025 estimate is 910,226, a decline of 19,518 people. Memphis is still the second most populous city in Tennessee and the largest city proper on the Mississippi River, but rank is not growth. The 2020 metro population is 1,345,425. No public 2025 metro population estimate is published. The city and the home county are both smaller than they were in 2020.

ACS 2024 median age is 34.8 years (33.5 for males, 36.2 for females). The city is young. Hispanic or Latino residents number 62,413 of 610,936, or 10.22%. Race alone counts from ACS 2024 are in the table below.

ACS 2024 race alone counts are demographic context. They are not a forecast of rents, occupancy, credit, collections, housing code outcomes, tax policy, or investment results.

Household structure is not a married couple suburb. ACS 2024 counts 250,830 households. Family households are 135,509, but married couple families are only 67,783. Other families number 67,726, including 51,696 female householders with no spouse present. Nonfamily households are 115,321, of which 99,743 are people living alone. One person households are 39.77% of all households. That is consistent with one bedroom product. A large one person household share can also mean less income diversification inside the household; missed rent outcomes are not assured by household type.

Geographic mobility covers 602,623 people age one year and over.

Most people did not move. Same county churn (57,696) dwarfs interstate inflows (13,987). This is not a military posting market and not an inbound migration market. Demand is local turnover, household formation among a younger population, and logistics job holds. It is not a wave of new residents filling new buildings.

Section 03Jobs and Economic Anchors

City residents and metro payrolls are different universes. ACS 2024 reports 275,741 civilian employed people living in Memphis. Many of them work in the cargo district, in DeSoto County, or in eastern Shelby. The BLS Current Employment Statistics survey for the Memphis Tennessee Mississippi Arkansas MSA is the current payroll tape. Figures below are not seasonally adjusted and preliminary for June 2026.

June 2026 civilian labor force was 626,200, with 596,000 employed and 30,200 unemployed, for a 4.8% unemployment rate. That rate is up from 4.1% in April and May on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Total nonfarm payrolls spent the first five months of 2026 in slightly negative 12 month territory and only printed plus 0.2% in June. This is a stall with a logistics pulse, not a hiring boom.

Trade, transportation, and utilities at 189,600 jobs is the defining supersector. At 29.26% of nonfarm employment it is concentration, not diversification. FedEx, Memphis International Airport cargo, the Mississippi River port, intermodal rail, and trucking are the named public identity of that number. A 2.0% 12 month gain in that sleeve is the labor market backdrop for industrial and workforce housing near the airport; it is not a downtown office demand print. Occupancy and rent are not assured.

Education and health services at 101,100 jobs is the civilian stabilizer, even with a 0.2% 12 month dip in the June print. Professional and business services at 83,300, down 1.2%, and financial activities at 29,100, down 3.6%, are not supporting an office thesis. Manufacturing at 38,900 is shrinking. Construction at 26,700, up 2.7%, is a small sleeve relative to 647,900 total jobs and is consistent with modest building, not a large permit boom.

Resident civilian industry from ACS 2024 matches the cargo city. Among 275,741 employed residents, educational services and health care employ 64,403, transportation, warehousing, and utilities 40,382, retail 33,596, manufacturing 17,615, and construction 13,907. Warehouse and driving work is a household identity, not a footnote.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis county series for Shelby is $88,404,225,000 in 2024, $85,672,928,000 in 2023, and $80,125,777,000 in 2022. County product in current dollars is still rising even as population falls. That can happen when logistics throughput and health care billings grow faster than headcount. It is not evidence that industrial rents will rise, and it does not fill empty houses in neighborhoods that are losing people. No public 2023 metro GDP figure is published.

Section 04Income

ACS 2024 median household income in Memphis is $52,679 in 2024 inflation adjusted dollars, with a margin of error of $2,423. Per capita income is $33,449. Those are city resident money income figures, and they are low relative to many other large U.S. cities in the same ACS vintage. Shelby County per capita personal income from BEA was $65,448 in 2024, $63,174 in 2023, and $58,667 in 2022. The gap is conceptual and geographic. BEA includes supplements and property income. The county includes Germantown, Collierville, and other higher income cities that are not the Memphis ACS city. Do not treat $52,679 and $65,448 as a disagreement about one number.

The lower tail is thick. Households under $50,000 are 47.32% of all households. Households at $150,000 and above are 10.31%. For multifamily, $52,679 median income against $1,263 median gross rent is a tight payment ratio at the median, and the rent burden table later shows that 30.19% of computed renter households already pay half their income on gross rent. Workforce product near the $980 ACS median contract rent is closer to the city’s occupied rent tape than a Class A asking rent story above the HUD two bedroom FMR. No particular rent or return is shown or assured.

Tennessee does not levy a state tax on wage income. That is a statutory household difference versus states that tax wage income. Local property tax remains the real estate operating levy and is covered in the Taxes section. No public city level official wage series is published.

Section 05Housing and Multifamily

ACS 2024 is the public description of the city’s stock. Memphis had 291,759 housing units and 250,830 occupied units. Owner occupied units were 111,737 (44.55% of occupied). Renter occupied units were 139,093 (55.45%). This is a renter majority city. That is unlike many majority ownership Sun Belt cities in the same ACS vintage, and it is the first housing stock fact to hold when reading the rest of this review.

Structures with five or more units total 76,680, or 26.28% of the stock. The 5 to 19 unit bands (46,097 units) are a large small apartment and garden sleeve. The 50 or more unit sleeve (21,946) is downtown, medical district, and a handful of larger communities. Detached houses are still 59.71% of units even in a renter majority city, which is the single family rental tell.

Tenure by structure makes that tell quantitative. Of 139,093 renter occupied units, 55,183 are one unit detached houses. That is 39.67% of renter households in a detached house. Owner occupied detached houses are 103,419. Scattered site single family rental is not a niche. It is the largest renter structure type.

Age of stock is old. This is not a 2021 delivery city.

Units built in 2010 or later are 17,750, or 6.08% of the stock. The 1950s alone (49,097 units) outnumber everything built since 2010. The 1960s and 1970s add another 94,125 units. Capex, lead paint era systems, roofs, and insurance on 50 to 75 year old wood and brick cottages are the operating reality. Among renter occupied units, only 2,768 were built in 2020 or later and 9,792 were built from 2010 to 2019. The occupied rental book is overwhelmingly pre 2000.

Bedroom mix is family and small household at once.

Three bedroom units are the mode, which matches the detached rental book. Two bedroom units are the apartment workhorse. One bedroom supply is limited relative to 99,743 people living alone, which can be consistent with well located one bedroom product if the block is leasable. Demand for any particular product is not assured.

Median owner occupied value is $209,800 (ACS 2024). That is a stock median, not a 2026 MLS sale. No public 2026 median sale price is published. The ACS value is the most defensible public city figure, and the public entry value sits below many higher median cities. That does not, by itself, imply a particular cash on cash or other return after tax, insurance, vacancy, and capex. No such return is shown or assured. Low value is not the same as high quality, and 23,011 other vacant units are the warning that cheap stock includes houses that are not rent ready.

Section 06Rents

The public rent tape is cheap, burdened, and moving slightly lower in HUD’s official schedule.

ACS 2024 city median contract rent is $980. Median gross rent is $1,263. The $283 gap is utilities, and it is wide relative to contract rent, which is what happens in old, inefficient stock. Median gross rent as a percentage of household income is 34.8%, above the conventional 30% line at the median renter.

HUD Fair Market Rents for the Memphis Tennessee Mississippi Arkansas HUD Metro FMR Area (Crittenden County, Arkansas; DeSoto County, Mississippi; Fayette, Shelby, and Tipton Counties, Tennessee) moved down from FY 2025 to FY 2026 at every bedroom size.

A HUD two bedroom FMR of $1,274 against an ACS city median gross rent of $1,263 says the official 40th percentile path and the occupied median are in the same neighborhood, and both are low. The FY 2026 two bedroom standard is 5.98% below FY 2025. That is an official public sign that recent mover rents cooled. No public same unit asking rent index is published for Memphis city. Zillow reports an average rent of $1,255 in Memphis as of mid 2026, down $45 from the prior year.

Among renter households with a computed ratio (130,120), 73,916 pay 30% or more of income on gross rent, and 39,287 pay 50% or more. That is 56.81% rent burdened and 30.19% severely burdened among computed renters. A $980 median contract rent is not affordable in the sense that tenants have slack. It is a low nominal rent on a low income base. Pushing asking rents without wage growth raises delinquency risk. No net operating income path is shown or assured.

Class A product that needs rents well above the ACS median and the HUD two bedroom FMR of $1,274 would sit above both public marks. It would need to compete in a specific submarket (downtown adaptive reuse, east Memphis professional, or medical district), not on a citywide shortage, because citywide rental vacancy is 10.17%. No particular asking rent, occupancy, or investment result is assured.

Section 07Vacancy

ACS 2024 vacant units total 40,929, or 14.03% of 291,759 units. That headline is high. The composition is the real story.

The Census rental vacancy rate is 15,751 / (15,751 + 139,093) = 10.17%. The homeowner vacancy rate is 614 / (614 + 111,737) = 0.55%. Ownership listings look thin. Rentals look loose. Other vacant at 23,011 units is 56.22% of all vacant units. That residual is held off market, pending estate, boarded, or otherwise not offered. It is the quantitative fingerprint of a shrinking city’s leftover houses. Seasonal vacancy is only 489 units. Memphis is not a second home market.

A 10.17% rental vacancy is a lease up environment in which concessions are plausible. New deliveries compete with a large vacant for rent pool and with 55,183 occupied detached rentals. Stabilized gardens in east Memphis can still run tighter than the citywide rate. No public property class occupancy series is published. Occupancy, concessions, and results are not assured.

The combination of 0.55% homeowner vacancy and 10.17% rental vacancy plus 23,011 other vacant units is a split market. Saleable owner product in functioning school zones is scarce. Rent ready apartments and houses are not scarce. Distressed vacant houses are abundant.

Section 08Supply Pipeline

The defensible public proxy is the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey for Shelby County, new private housing units authorized.

This is not a Sun Belt permit boom. Peak years in this window barely cleared 2,000 units for an entire county of about 910,000 people. 2025 fell to 1,230, the lowest year in the 2020 to 2025 set. Permits are authorizations, not completions, and they mix single family and multifamily. They still say that Memphis is not flooding the city with new units on this permit tape. ACS already shows only 3,936 city units built in 2020 or later. The vacancy problem is demand, quality, and location, not a large delivery spike.

No public count of units under construction, quarterly multifamily deliveries, or named apartment projects is published. Construction payroll in the MSA was 26,700 in June 2026, up 2.7% over 12 months, a small absolute sleeve.

A low permit rate does not automatically tighten a 10.17% rental vacancy when population is falling and 23,011 units sit in other vacant status. Occupancy for any particular block is not assured.

Section 09Single Family Homes

Detached houses are the majority of physical stock and the plurality of renter occupied units. ACS 2024 counts 174,213 one unit detached structures. Renter occupied detached houses are 55,183. Owner occupied detached houses are 103,419. Professional scattered site rental, single family rental funds, and local landlords already occupy this market at scale.

Median owner occupied value of $209,800 is the public price anchor. At that median, the public entry value is low relative to many other large cities. Attractiveness on a spreadsheet is not a sourced return and is not assured. Operating reality includes old mechanicals (49,097 units built in the 1950s), possible vacancy next door (other vacant is 23,011 citywide), insurance, and a tenant pool with 30.19% severe rent burden among computed renters. ACS does not publish a separate contract rent for detached rentals. Applying the citywide $980 median contract rent to a three bedroom house would understate many east Memphis house rents and overstate weaker north and south tracts. No citywide price to rent ratio is computed.

Homeowner vacancy of 0.55% says the functioning for sale inventory is thin. Thin listings and a falling population can coexist when would be sellers hold, when credit qualified buyers are few, or when a large share of surplus stock is not in saleable condition. Owner occupied units built in 2020 or later number only 618. The owner book is not being refreshed.

No public 2026 median sale price, days on market, or home value index is published. No public citywide average assessed value is published. Build to rent communities are a product type that matches a city where 41.04% of units have three bedrooms and 39.67% of renters already occupy detached houses. No public census of build to rent communities is published. New build to rent still has to compete with a $209,800 existing median and with 15,751 vacant for rent units. No particular occupancy, rent, or return is assured.

Section 10Commercial Real Estate and Retail Centers

No public Memphis office, industrial, or retail vacancy rate, asking rent, or cap rate is published.

Labor mix still gives direction, and it is unusually clear. Trade, transportation, and utilities at 189,600 jobs, up 2.0% over 12 months, is an industrial and logistics demand story around Memphis International Airport, the FedEx complex, the river port, and the interstate cross of Interstate 40, Interstate 55, and Interstate 240. That is the strongest directional commercial backdrop this public record supports. Occupancy and rent for a particular bulk warehouse still require a vendor run. No public figure is published. Outcomes vary by asset and are not assured.

Office is the opposite. Information is 4,800 jobs and falling. Financial activities are down 3.6%. Professional and business services are down 1.2%. Downtown Class A and medical adjacent office can split between users who must be in Memphis and a work from home share of 22,881 city residents (8.42% of 271,695 workers). No public office vacancy percent is published.

Retail follows rooftops and income, and both are strained inside the city. ACS 2024 counts 250,830 households, median income $52,679, and 25.66% of households under $25,000. Grocery anchored centers that serve stable east Memphis and inner suburban rooftops have a necessity backdrop. Discretionary retail in depopulating census tracts does not. Tourism retail on Beale Street and around Graceland has a visitor backdrop that shows up more in leisure and hospitality (63,300 jobs, down 0.6%) than in a reported cap rate. No public grocery anchored occupancy figure is published.

A licensed vendor run is required for any commercial occupancy, rent, or cap rate figure. No public figure is published.

Section 11Transactions and Capital Markets

No public 2025 or 2026 apartment, industrial, office, or retail transaction volume, median cap rate, or price per unit series is published for Memphis.

What is public is a stalling labor market (+0.2% payrolls), a 4.8% unemployment rate, county GDP of $88.4 billion in 2024, a 10.17% rental vacancy, and HUD FMRs that moved down into FY 2026. That combination does not say what cap rate a 2021 vintage asset trades at in 2026. No public clearing cap rate is published.

National mortgage rate prints are not Memphis specific and are omitted. Parcel level sale prices are on file with Shelby County and should be pulled in diligence. Low ACS values can hide a wide bid ask on individual streets.

Section 12Taxes

Tennessee does not tax wage income at the state level. The operating tax that matters for real estate is the property tax, stacked across city, county, and, in some cases, special districts. The Shelby County Assessor appraises property. The city and county set rates. No public combined Memphis and Shelby rate is published as a single official figure. Investors must pull the tax bill for the actual parcel.

Tennessee’s structure does not tax wage income at the state level and still relies on property tax for local services. Investment property does not receive homestead treatment. A falling population can pressure the remaining tax base, which is a fiscal risk for millage even when it is not a number in this document.

Because a parsed 2025 city and county rate was not extracted as a single official figure, no combined millage is stated. The structure, not a number, is the usable fact. Tennessee Housing Development Agency programs exist for affordable housing. No public program dollar figure is published.

Section 13Insurance

No public average homeowners premium, average landlord premium, or year over year premium change is published for Memphis or Shelby County.

Physical context is river, convective storm, and humidity, not a mountain wildfire interface. Flood along the Mississippi River, Wolf River, and local drainage is a FEMA panel question, parcel by parcel. Tornado and hail risk is real in the Mid South. No premium dollar or deductible percent is invented. Older cottages (49,097 units from the 1950s, 24,892 from 1939 or earlier) are the roof and plumbing insurance problem.

The New Madrid seismic zone is a regional geologic fact. No public probability or mandatory seismic insurance quote is published. Seismic exposure on large masonry or unreinforced product is a diligence item, not a number in this document.

Section 14Landlord Tenant and Regulatory Environment

Residential tenancies in Tennessee are governed primarily by Tennessee Code Title 66. The code exists, it is state law, and it is the starting document for any leasing platform.

Tennessee’s statewide posture has generally been less active on recent tenant protection cycles than Colorado’s, and it is not a coastal rent control regime. Memphis as a local government can still affect deals through housing code, rental registration or inspection programs, zoning, and tax increment districts. No public Memphis rental inspection ordinance or local rent cap is published.

Eviction is a court process. No public Shelby County eviction filing count or median days to possession figure is published.

Fair Housing Act rules apply. This review is not legal advice. Operating in a 10.17% rental vacancy with 30.19% severe rent burden is as much a collections and property condition problem as a statute problem.

Section 15Infrastructure

Memphis is a river and interstate city. The Mississippi River is the western edge and the historic reason the cargo economy exists. Interstate 40 runs east west. Interstate 55 runs north south. Interstate 240 loops the core. Memphis International Airport is a global cargo node and the physical partner of the 189,600 job trade, transportation, and utilities supersector. No public 2026 cargo tonnage figure is published.

ACS 2024 commute behavior says the system is a car city. Of 271,695 workers, 201,902 drove alone, 34,723 carpooled, 1,499 used public transportation, 5,513 walked, and 22,881 worked from home. Public transportation’s share is 0.55%. Work from home is 8.42%.

The 15 to 29 minute band is the majority. A relatively small 60 minute plus tail (6,267) is consistent with a compact metro compared with larger multi county metros. Workforce housing near the airport and the interstate loop can still be consistent with shorter drive times even when the city is shrinking. Rent premiums are not assured.

The Mississippi River, the port, and rail are industrial infrastructure. They are also flood and barge disruption infrastructure. No public 2026 port throughput is published. Water and sewer in older neighborhoods can be a capex item for infill. No public tap fee schedule is published.

Section 16Climate and Physical Risks

No public NOAA station normals table for Memphis is published. No public mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, or 100 year precipitation depth is therefore stated. The climate regime is humid subtropical Mid South: hot summers, humidity, thunderstorms, tornado risk, occasional winter ice, and riverine flood on the Mississippi and tributaries.

FEMA flood maps are the parcel tool, especially near the river, Wolf River, and low lying south and west tracts. Upland east Memphis can still have local drainage issues. No public share of city parcels in the 1% annual chance floodplain is published.

Heat and humidity raise cooling loads and mold risk in 1950s cottages with weak envelopes. That is an operating expense and insurance issue, not a NOAA number in this document. Seismic exposure in the New Madrid region is a known geologic overlay. No public probability is published.

Section 17Neighborhoods and Submarkets

Memphis is not one rent. ACS in this review is citywide. Neighborhood numbers below are qualitative because no public ACS or CoStar slice by neighborhood is published.

Downtown and the riverfront are the small high rise, adaptive reuse, and tourism book around Beale Street, the pyramid, and the FedExForum. They depend on office workers, courts, hotels, and visitors. With professional services and financial payrolls shrinking, downtown apartments depend on urban amenity, not on an assumed office walking crowd.

Midtown and the medical district mix older stock, one person households, and health care employment of 64,403 city residents in educational services and health care. That can be a renter backdrop if blocks are safe and maintained; occupancy is not assured.

East Memphis is the higher income, higher value, more owner occupied contrast inside the city. It is where a $209,800 citywide median value will feel too low as a local description. Grocery anchored retail and professional renters concentrate here. No neighborhood median is published.

North Memphis, Frayser, Whitehaven, and much of South Memphis hold more of the 1950s stock, more of the 23,011 other vacant units, and more of the collections risk that a 25.66% share of households under $25,000 implies. A low public basis without a leasing plan is not a strategy, and no particular occupancy or return is assured.

Hickory Hill, Cordova (the portion inside the city), and the southeast edge compete with unincorporated Shelby and with DeSoto County, Mississippi, for households that still want a three bedroom house. Suburbs outside the city ACS boundary can grow while the city shrinks. No public DeSoto ACS is published.

Because neighborhood statistics are missing, site selection should start with assessor parcels, crime and school data from primary local sources, flood panels, and a street level vacant house count, not with this map.

Section 18Opportunities

The public record supports a few educational, non exhaustive observations.

First, public entry values are low. ACS median owner occupied value of $209,800 and median contract rent of $980 can still be the starting prints for a workforce or scattered site underwriting case if the specific block is occupied and insured. That is a relative statement against higher median markets, not a promise of yield.

Second, 55,183 detached renter households already exist. Single family rental is a core Memphis product, not an experiment.

Third, logistics is 189,600 jobs and growing 2.0% over 12 months. Industrial product and workforce housing near the airport and interstate loop sit on that payroll. Occupancy still needs a vendor file. Occupancy and rent are not assured.

Fourth, new supply is not the enemy. Shelby County authorized only 1,230 units in 2025. The vacancy problem is demand and stock quality. Recapturing other vacant houses into rent ready units is a different operating job than adding units into a 10.17% vacant for rent pool. Neither path is a forecast of occupancy or return.

Fifth, Tennessee’s lack of a state wage income tax is a household location factor versus states that tax wage income. It has not, on this tape, stopped city population from falling.

None of these points is a recommendation to buy.

Section 19Risks

City population is falling (633,104 in 2020 to 610,936 in ACS 2024). County population is falling (929,744 to 910,226). Underwriting unit growth against household growth inside the city is fighting the Census.

Rental vacancy at 10.17% and HUD two bedroom FMRs down 5.98% are a pricing power problem for new multifamily and for ambitious renovations.

Other vacant units at 23,011 are a blight and insurance adjacency risk even for a well run asset on the next block.

Rent burden is severe: 39,287 renter households spend 50% or more of income on gross rent. Collections, not asking rent, may bind.

Payroll concentration in trade, transportation, and utilities (29.26% of jobs) is a single complex risk. A FedEx or air cargo shock would hit this metro harder than a diversified professional city.

Old stock (49,097 units from the 1950s) means capex, lead era systems, and insurance. Low purchase price can be eaten by a roof and a vacant period.

Crime, school quality, and block level leasing are not quantified in this review because no public extract was retrieved. They are still operating risks in a shrinking renter majority city.

Data risk: CoStar, Yardi, RealPage, and Redfin series are not in this review. Zillow’s advertised average rent is cited above; no public cap rate, commercial occupancy, or same unit asking rent index is published. Decisions that need those missing figures are not supported by this document.

Section 20Investor Implications

Read Memphis as a shrinking, renter majority, logistics anchored city with ACS median value of $209,800, median gross rent of $1,263, 10.17% rental vacancy, and 0.2% payroll growth. The educational implication is to match strategy to that tape.

Citywide Class A multifamily that needs population growth and rising FMRs is fighting HUD, ACS vacancy, and the Census count. Submarket selection (east Memphis, medical, airport workforce) is the entire thesis, not a footnote. No particular occupancy, rent, cash flow, or investment return is promised or assured.

Value add gardens and scattered site single family rental are the products that already exist at scale (55,183 detached renter households, 76,680 units in five or more unit structures). They require collections skill, capex discipline, and a vacant house strategy, not a 2021 lease up story.

Industrial and last mile near the airport follow the only large growing supersector. Office does not.

A 1,230 unit permit year in 2025 is not a supply shortage that will save a weak location. It does not assure occupancy, and HUD’s FY 2026 two bedroom FMR is already below FY 2025.

This section frames. It does not allocate capital.

Section 21Conclusion

Memphis in 2026 is a city of 610,936 ACS residents, down from 633,104 in the 2020 Census, inside a Shelby County of 910,226 estimated people, with 647,900 metro payroll jobs, 4.8% unemployment, $52,679 median household income, $209,800 median owner value, $1,263 median gross rent, and 10.17% rental vacancy. Logistics is 189,600 jobs and the only large supersector still adding payrolls at a 2.0% clip. Housing is old, renter majority, and full of other vacant units. HUD two bedroom FMRs moved down to $1,274 in FY 2026. Permits are low, not high. The public record is strong on people, jobs, incomes, stock, HUD rents, and vacancy. It is weak on cap rates, asking rents, commercial occupancy, parcel tax rates, and insurance premiums. Fill those holes with the Shelby County Assessor, a licensed market data run, a flood and property condition report, and Tennessee Code Title 66 before any investment decision. This review is not an offering document and is not an offer or solicitation. A low public basis and a cargo airport keep the city relevant as educational market context for accredited investors. A low public basis in a shrinking city is not the same as a shortage, is not an offer or solicitation, and no particular investment return is promised or assured.